Ebola - A simple linear fit on the log2 data value.

I made a simple linear fit on the Log2 values of the Cumulative and Prevalent cases (Prevalent Cases = Cumulative Cases - Cumulative Deaths)

The projections for the end of Nov and Dec are shown on the chart as open circles with the projected numbers of cases alongside.

I make no attempt whatsoever at confidence intervals or the like.

Exponential Growth of Ebola Cases Continues 11/12/2014

World Wide Ebola Cases 11/07/2014

The rather steep jump in the later part of October was due to WHO re-evaluating its database and adjusting the aggregate number of case. It was not a week over week increase from the last point.

Encouraging insomuch as the exponential growth pattern seems to have leveled off.

Growth in Ebola Cases, Log2

The significance, of course, is the exponential growth pattern. Just eyeballing it right now, it looks like by the end of November, given the current trend, Ebola cases should be pushing 14.5, or about 20000 cases. I don't see the 1 million plus by Jan the CDC is supposed to have predicted, but then, this isn't a terribly sophisticated model. My own prediction, again, just by eyeballing this chart, is about 100,000 cases (16.5).

When I get some time, I'll actually attempt a linear fit and use that to project.